538
Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
January 17, 2025 at 9:59 PM

What can we expect from Trump's first 100 days?

He's vowed mass deportations, travel bans and expanded oil drilling.
January 17, 2025 at 9:59 PM
President-elect Donald Trump speaks to members of the media during a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago Club, Jan. 7, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM

Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world

Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024.
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM

2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality

How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
The 2024 election cycle has fewer polls than past years, but data suggests that they're of higher quality.
January 17, 2025 at 9:42 PM

How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024

Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.
January 17, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Congressional redistricting in North Carolina, New York, Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia could affect the race to control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024
January 17, 2025 at 9:41 PM

Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election

538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
January 17, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Michigan is a pivotal swing state in the 2024 presidential election.
January 17, 2025 at 9:40 PM

Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries

Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.
January 17, 2025 at 9:40 PM
538 tracked how candidates endorsed by major progressive groups did in 2024 Democratic primaries.
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM

Americans really love their governors

America’s governors are popular, but just how popular?
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Vermont Gov. Phil Scott is one of the most popular governors in the country, while Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves is one of the least.
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM

What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table

Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Roy Cooper are on the list of potential Democratic vice presidential picks.
January 17, 2025 at 9:38 PM

Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term

The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.
January 17, 2025 at 9:38 PM
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions later in its term.
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM

How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023

How often did Senate and House Democrats and Republicans vote with President Joe Biden in 2023?
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
How often did members of Congress vote in line with President Joe Biden's position in 2023?
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM

Can a busy campaign schedule save Trump's GOP primary opponents?

538 tracked which GOP primary candidates are holding the most campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire.
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
For the past several months, researchers at 538 and campaign embeds at ABC News have logged every public campaign event held by a major Republican candidate for president as they crisscross states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM

These under-the-radar 2024 elections could have a big impact

The under-the-radar elections to watch in 2024.
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM
There are a number of under-the-radar elections to keep an eye on in 2024.
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM

What do Americans think of the Biden impeachment inquiry?

Americans narrowly support the House opening an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, but oppose actual impeachment.
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on artificial intelligence in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, July 21, 2023.
January 17, 2025 at 5:54 PM

How Americans are reacting to the Los Angeles wildfires

Polling shows many Americans blame climate change for the Los Angeles wildfires.
January 17, 2025 at 5:54 PM
A utilities worker views damage from the Palisades Fire, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, on Jan. 12, 2025.
January 17, 2025 at 5:38 PM

Who were the strongest Senate and House candidates of 2024?

538 looks at the 2024 election results to see which Senate and House candidates were the strongest and weakest.
January 17, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Larry Hogan, Jon Tester and Amy Klobuchar were some of the strongest candidates for Congress in 2024.
January 16, 2025 at 9:29 PM

How Biden reshaped the judiciary

President Joe Biden's judicial appointees were the most diverse ever, but Donald Trump's remain more influential.
January 16, 2025 at 9:29 PM
President Joe Biden appointed slightly more federal judges than President-elect Donald Trump did during his first term.
January 13, 2025 at 6:25 PM

Why Trump is getting more popular

Donald Trump's favorability rating and popularity are near a record high.
January 13, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Donald Trump's favorability rating is on the rise.
January 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM

Why the speaker vote should still worry Mike Johnson

Which Republicans initially opposed Mike Johnson for speaker of the House?
January 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Rep. Mike Johnson talks to Rep. Steve Scalise and other fellow Representatives as the House votes for Speaker of the House on the first day of the 119th Congress in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol, Jan. 3, 2025, in Washington.
January 6, 2025 at 2:43 PM

Key elections to watch in 2025

Races for governor, mayor and U.S. House special elections will be in the spotlight in 2025.
January 6, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Open gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey are among the key elections that will be held in 2025.
January 2, 2025 at 2:24 PM

What I got wrong in 2024

Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich roasts his predictions from 2024.
January 2, 2025 at 2:24 PM
538’s Nathaniel Rakich makes a lot of predictions — here are the ones in 2024 that didn’t quite pan out the way he thought.
December 30, 2024 at 9:14 PM

Jimmy Carter was ahead of his time on energy (and craft brewing)

Jimmy Carter's presidency in four charts.
December 30, 2024 at 9:14 PM
President Jimmy Carter speaks in front of Solar Panels placed on West Wing Roof of White House, announcing his solar energy policy, Washington, D.C., June 20, 1979.
December 30, 2024 at 8:16 PM

How will Jimmy Carter be remembered?

538 analysts discuss President Jimmy Carter's legacy.
December 30, 2024 at 8:16 PM
Examining former President Jimmy Carter’s legacy.
December 26, 2024 at 3:19 PM

26 charts that helped explain 2024 in politics

The best charts 538 made in 2024.
December 26, 2024 at 3:19 PM
538's visual journalists were hard at work in 2024.
1 month ago

Why most of Trump's Cabinet picks will get confirmed by the Senate

Why most of Donald Trump's Cabinet picks will probably be confirmed.
1 month ago
Will Trump's Cabinet nominees get confirmed?
1 month ago

Why abortion didn't lead Democrats to victory in the 2024 election

Why abortion didn't lead to a Democratic win in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
Abortion didn't affect the 2024 election as much as Democrats hoped.
1 month ago

Our 2024 Superlatives | 538 politics podcast

On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
1 month ago
On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
1 month ago

Americans are unhappy with the state of health care and insurance

538's polling column about the state of health care, voters' trust in the 2024 election results and President Joe Biden's approval rating.
1 month ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
1 month ago

Where have all the Democrats gone?

Which counties swung right in the 2024 election?
1 month ago
How every county shifted from the 2020 to 2024 election.
1 month ago

After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate

Why it's hard for Democrats to win elections for U.S. Senate control.
1 month ago
Democrats are at a disadvantage in the Senate.
1 month ago

America's swing to the right in 2024 was wide, if not always deep

Trump gained ground in every state and most counties in the 2024 election compared to 2020.
1 month ago
The 2024 election saw a broad swing to the right in how states and counties voted compared to 2020.
1 month ago

Trump's Cabinet woes are back, earlier than ever

President-elect Donald Trump could break the record for most failed Cabinet nominations to start a term.
1 month ago
Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of defense, and his wife Jennifer Rauchet arrive for meetings on Capitol Hill, Dec. 9, 2024, in Washington.
1 month ago

Why Democrats now support the Hunter Biden pardon

538's polling column about President Joe Biden's pardon of his son, Sarah McBride's favorability and the future of America.
1 month ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
2 months ago

Has the number of women in Congress hit a ceiling?

Neither party made significant gains in 2024, and Republican women still lag behind.
2 months ago
Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Kristen McDonald Rivet, Janelle Bynum, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez  and Jen Kiggans were among the women who won highly competitive House elections in 2024.
2 months ago

Why Republicans start out as favorites in the 2026 Senate elections

Democrats need to flip four Senate seats in 2026 to reclaim a majority, but have few clear targets.
2 months ago
At least 35 seats in the U.S. Senate are expected to be up for election in November 2026.
2 months ago

Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.

As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.
2 months ago
Republicans are set to control a very narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2024 election.
2 months ago

The 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide

Donald Trump's close win over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election hasn't stopped him from claiming a mandate.
2 months ago
President-elect Donald Trump's 2024 win was historically narrow.
2 months ago

The congressional bathroom ban is the latest transgender policy battle

538's polling column about Republicans' transgender bathroom bans, Trump's transition, trust in polls and Thanksgiving plans.
2 months ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
2 months ago

How pollsters' methodology may have changed

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
2 months ago
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
2 months ago

What the 2024 election tells us about past elections

538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
2 months ago
538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
2 months ago

Gaetz is out. Will Trump's other Cabinet picks be confirmed?

Matt Gaetz has withdrawn, but will other Trump Cabinet nominees have trouble with confirmation?
2 months ago
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
2 months ago

What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win

Donald Trump's appeals to young men and men of color in the 2024 election campaign may have paid off.
2 months ago
Donald Trump once again saw notably higher support among men than women in 2024.
2 months ago

Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025

A school-voucher-like program could pass in Texas after the 2024 election.
2 months ago
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had a great 2024 election — and he wasn't even on the ballot.
2 months ago

Why voters chose Trump

Despite Donald Trump's unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.
2 months ago
As Donald Trump prepares for a second term as president, 538 dug into the polls to see what Americans think about his policy opinions and rhetoric
2 months ago

How the issue of immigration may evolve in a second Trump term

538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
2 months ago
538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
2 months ago

Are Latino voters shifting or in a realignment?

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
2 months ago
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
2 months ago

What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
2 months ago
Polls of Latino voters during the 2024 election were a mixed bag of accuracy.  Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
2 months ago

How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried

The 2024 election had at least three split-ticket results, though presidential and Senate votes still closely aligned.
2 months ago
At least three Democratic Senate candidates are poised to win their contests in states that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 presidential race.
2 months ago

2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump

How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?
2 months ago
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla.
2 months ago

Republicans won the Senate

How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?
2 months ago
Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Westlake, Ohio.
2 months ago

What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
2 months ago
An Electoral College tie in the 2024 presidential election is unlikely but plausible.
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