Harris-Trump debate: What to watch for on the economy

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are set to square off in a high-stakes debate on Tuesday less than two months before Election Day.

The verbal joust will touch on a range of issues but none may be more important than the economy, which often ranks as the top priority among voters.

ABC News spoke to experts about what they will be watching for when the debate turns to the economy. They said they'll be looking for everything from the amount of substantive discussion to the relevance of Biden’s legacy to the prevalence of topics like inflation and taxes.

Here’s what to watch for on the economy in the debate between Trump and Harris, according to experts.

Sizzle versus substance

With some exceptions, polls typically show that voters prefer Trump over Harris on the issue of the economy, though she has narrowed the gap held by Trump over President Joe Biden earlier in the campaign.

The preference aligns with a 14 percentage-point advantage for Republicans over Democrats on the matter of keeping the country prosperous, a Gallup survey last year found, granting Republicans their largest margin on the issue since polling on the question began in 1991.

In theory, the advantage for Trump on the economy could lend itself to a fruitful portion of the debate for him, some experts told ABC News. However, they added, Trump’s propensity to stray off message, level personal attacks and make false claims could minimize or negate the potential gain.

“He has to stay on message,” Peter Morici, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland's School of Business, told ABC News. “If he’s prepared, then he should be able to put [Harris] in a position where it’s tough to rebut.”

Steve Boms, founder and president of D.C.-based consulting firm Allon Advocacy, said the debate is unlikely to explore nitty-gritty policy nuances. Instead of seeking to avoid details on an issue over which voters favor Trump, Harris may pursue a substantive conversation in an attempt to demonstrate superior command of the topic.

“The history of debates with former President Trump is that they don’t often lend themselves to really substantive policy debates,” Boms said. “It will be a challenge for Vice President Harris to use a policy discussion as a means of juxtaposing her policies against his.”

Biden’s legacy

As with other issues, the economy presents Harris with a key choice about how much to embrace Biden’s record and how much to distance herself, some experts said.

Since many Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, Harris may seek to set herself apart from the status quo by acknowledging Americans’ financial pain and presenting policy proposals to address it, experts added.

The relative strength of Trump on the issue owes in part to a souring of consumer attitudes about the economy since he left office.

Consumer sentiment clocked in at a score of about 68 last month, according to a survey conducted by the University of Michigan. That figure indicates improvement from a low reached in 2022, but the mark stands well below a level of 80 recorded in Trump’s last full month in office and 101 achieved pre-pandemic.

“The main dynamic is that Harris is trying to pick and choose the aspects of the Biden record that she wants to run on and avoid responsibility for the things people want to blame on Biden,” said Matt Grossmann, a professor of political science at Michigan State University who studies the role of economic performance in electoral politics.

“How much will Harris be able to present herself as a new agenda rather than a continuation?” Grossmann added.

Inflation

The most prominent topic to be covered during the economy section of the debate could be inflation, some experts said, noting frequent mentions of price concerns by candidates on the campaign trail.

While price increases have slowed dramatically from a peak reached in June 2022, inflation remains nearly a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Even more, since Biden took office consumer prices have increased more than 20%, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

“??Of all the economic issues, inflation is the strongest one that Trump has,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School, told ABC News.

“The inflation rate has come down much faster than most people expected,” Roach added. “The problem is the price level remains unacceptably high.”

Last month, Harris unveiled proposals that aim to ease inflation by targeting prices for groceries, housing and medication. The plans include eye-catching proposals such as a ban on grocery price gouging and a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers.

“She has put forward some proposals to try to target some sectors with inflation,” said Grossmann of Michigan State University. “That ... so far has allowed her to not have as much blame for inflation as Biden was getting before he dropped out.”

Tax proposals

While policy details remain scarce in some areas, both candidates have put forward several proposals on their approach to taxes.

Trump has said he would renew his signature tax cut measure, while vowing to do away with taxes on tips and Social Security benefits.

For her part, Harris has said she would also eliminate taxes on tips, while promising to reject renewal of Trump’s tax law and raise taxes on corporations. She has also proposed a 28% tax on long-term capital gains, which clocks in well below the 39.6% tax rate for such income put forward by Biden.

At the debate, both candidates will frame their tax plans as efforts to boost the prospects of working-class and middle-income people, said Boms of Allon Advocacy. Trump may claim that his tax measure helped drive wage gains for workers during his presidency, while Harris could point to the potential for corporations to pay a higher share in taxes, he said.

Morici said both candidates will tout tax savings for everyday people.

“It resonates to say, ‘I’ll give you more money back from Uncle Sam,’” he said.