Key elections to watch in 2025

The 2024 election may be over, but the electoral hamster wheel will keep on spinning in 2025. In the past, elections that occur the year after a presidential race have often presented opportunities for the party that lost the White House to make gains or hold onto power in places it already controls, and 2025 is no different.

Statewide races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey sit at the top of the 2025 marquee, and Democrats and Republicans, respectively, will hope that recent trends in those states point to success this fall. Meanwhile, Wisconsin will host a race that will determine whether liberals or conservatives control the state's highly contested Supreme Court. Millions of other voters will also decide on the next mayors of their cities, including the country's largest city, New York. Lastly, we can already anticipate at least three special elections in the House. Here then is an early look at what's to come now that the calendar has turned to January.

State elections

Virginia

Virginia's gubernatorial elections are unique because the Old Dominion is the only state that prevents incumbent governors from seeking immediate reelection. As a result, these races are always open-seat contests that test each party's strength just a year after the presidential contest — which has usually benefited the party not in the White House. Dating back to 1977, that party has won all but one of 12 gubernatorial contests in the state, with Democrats' narrow win in 2013 serving as the lone exception. And in each of those contests, the national opposition party has gained ground relative to its statewide performance in the presidential election a year earlier.

This trend could spell bad news for Republican hopes of holding onto Virginia's governorship. In 2021, now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin only narrowly won by 2 percentage points after President Joe Biden had carried the state by 10 points in the 2020 presidential race. And while competitive, Virginia presently has a blue lean: Outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by just shy of 6 points while President-elect Donald Trump won nationally by about 1.5 points. All of this could make the GOP's path to victory even thornier in 2025.

When it comes to the candidates, we already know who'll likely face off in November — and that history will probably be made. On the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears looks set to be her party's nominee after another potential contender, state Attorney General Jason Miyares, announced he will seek reelection instead (unlike the governorship, Virginia's LG and AG posts do not have a one-term limit). Democrats, meanwhile, have mostly coalesced behind former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who announced her retirement ahead of the 2024 election to focus on her gubernatorial bid. Dissatisfaction among Black party leaders with Spanberger's campaign has left open the remote possibility that longtime Rep. Bobby Scott could challenge Spanberger in the Democratic primary. But otherwise, Sears and Spanperger look likely to meet in the general election, which would all but guarantee that Virginia will elect its first woman governor — and first Black woman if Sears can break the commonwealth's recent electoral trend.

The result in the gubernatorial race could help determine if Virginia will continue to have divided government or if Democrats will claim a "trifecta" — control of the governorship and both chambers of the legislature. All 100 of the seats in the state's lower legislative chamber, the House of Delegates, will also be on the ballot in November, and Democrats won just a 51-to-49 seat advantage in 2023, so it could be a very tight affair. (The state Senate isn't on the ballot until 2027, but Democrats' narrow majorities there and in the House will also have to survive a cadre of low-turnout special elections later this month, albeit mostly in blue-leaning seats.)

Additionally, Virginia will elect its next lieutenant governor and attorney general. Considering the lack of split-ticket voting in recent years, one party is likely to carry all three statewide offices — Republicans swept them in 2009 and 2021, while Democrats did the same in 2013 and 2017. In the lieutenant governor's contest, Democrats have a crowded field of five contenders, while the Republican race has been slower to develop. Meanwhile, two Democrats are vying to run against Miyares for the AG slot in November: former state Del. Jay Jones, who ran a pretty competitive primary race against then-incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring in 2021, and Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor.

New Jersey

New Jersey's recent electoral trajectory has whetted Republican appetites for a gubernatorial win in 2025. In 2021, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy only won reelection by just over 3 points despite being an incumbent in a fairly blue state. Then this past November, Harris only edged Trump by about 6 points, the smallest Democratic margin of victory in a presidential race since Bill Clinton carried the Garden State by 2 points in 1992. Still, with a Republican entering the White House, Democrats may end up facing a friendlier electoral environment come November 2025 than they did in either of those previous elections.

Murphy is term-limited, so the open-seat contest has attracted a cornucopia of candidates, starting with a crowded field of Democratic aspirants. Leading the way may be Democratic Reps. Mikie Sherrill, a Navy veteran who came on stage by flipping a House seat during Trump's first midterm, and Josh Gottheimer, a fundraising dynamo with a centrist reputation. But four other Democrats are also running: Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, former State Senate President Steve Sweeney and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, who each have their own notable backers in state politics. Two November surveys conducted on behalf of Sherril's campaign and a pro-Sherrill group found her with an early primary lead, but there are many months to go until the state's June primary.

Republicans may once again turn to the candidate who came close to defeating Murphy in 2021: former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. He has a mixed record when it comes to supporting Trump, but that's potentially allowed Ciattarelli to position himself as the candidate who can best unite the party against the eventual Democratic nominee. It's not immediately obvious who might pose the greatest threat to Ciattarelli, either. Former state Sen. Ed Durr, who upset Democratic contender Sweeney in a 2021 state Senate race, will bring a louder pro-Trump bent to his campaign, as will conservative radio host Bill Spadea. On the other side of Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick offers a moderate and Trump-skeptical approach, which hasn't exactly been a ticket to success in GOP primaries.

New Jersey's 80-seat General Assembly, the state's lower legislative chamber, will also be on the ballot in 2025. However, Democrats won a 52-to-28 advantage there in 2023, leaving little reason to think that the GOP can possibly flip the chamber.

Wisconsin

But before New Jersey and Virginia vote, Wisconsin will dominate the 2025 electoral headlines. That's because control of the state's closely divided Supreme Court will be up for grabs in April. The same was true in 2023, when liberals flipped a conservative-held seat to take a four-to-three majority in the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history. That narrow liberal advantage has already made waves, with the court overturning Republican-drawn state legislative maps ahead of the 2024 election. But the upcoming retirement of liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley will leave open a seat that could determine the court's upcoming decisions in key cases on abortion and labor rights.

Liberals will hope that recent shifts in the electorate, along with a potential reaction to Trump, can once again give them an upper hand this year. After all, liberal candidates have won three of the past four Supreme Court races, helped out in part by Democrats' improved performance among voters with a four-year college degree, who are more likely to cast a ballot in lower-turnout contests like these.

And we can expect it to be a relatively low-turnout election because spring elections in Wisconsin have far lower participation rates than a typical November general election. Based on estimates from the University of Florida Election Lab, about 70 percent or more of Wisconsin's voting-eligible population cast ballots in each presidential election from 2008 to 2024, while at least 52 percent voted in each midterm from 2010 to 2022. By comparison, less than half of the VEP has voted in Supreme Court races in that time period. And even that's complicated by the fact that the spring election sometimes coincides with high-profile presidential primaries that drive turnout. The highest turnout outside of those years came in 2023, when 42 percent voted.

With this race now only three months away, the candidates are just about set. Although the candidate filing deadline is Tuesday, only two contenders have entered, and each has the machinery of their associated political party behind them. On the liberal side, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford has the state Democratic party's endorsement as well as support from all four liberal justices currently on the court. Former state Attorney General Brad Schimel, a Republican who lost reelection in the blue wave year of 2018, has coalesced support on the conservative side via endorsements from all Republicans in the state's congressional delegation as well as many law endorsement officials.

Mayoral elections

Not to be overshadowed by statewide races, 19 cities with at least 300,000 residents will hold mayoral elections this year. The most notable of these is definitely New York City, the nation's largest municipality, but plenty of other notable cities will also choose their next executive leader. Among them, Oakland, California, whose voters recalled Mayor Sheng Thao in November, will hold a special election on April 15 that could feature a retiring member of Congress. Elsewhere, an open nonpartisan mayoral contest in San Antonio has drawn a crowded field, while incumbent Democrats in cities like Minneapolis and Pittsburgh are gearing up for potentially tough primary challenges. These races will take place throughout the year, starting in the spring and stretching into the fall.

Understandably though, the New York race has garnered the most national attention. There, incumbent Democratic Mayor Eric Adams plans to seek reelection while facing felony charges for bribery and fraud. While the Big Apple shifted to the right this past November, it remains a Democratic stronghold, so Adams's future likely hinges on the result of the party's June primary. A lengthy list of Democrats have announced their intentions to challenge Adams, including the city's current and former comptroller and four current or former state legislators. However, Adams can't count on a divided field aiding him because New York City uses ranked-choice voting to decide most municipal elections. Adams came out on top when this system debuted in 2021, but it could make it harder for him this time around.

Special elections

Last but not least, we can already expect at least three special elections for the U.S. House of Representatives early in 2025 due to vacancies in the 435-seat chamber. Two Florida districts will host primary contests on Jan. 28, followed by special general elections on April 1: The state's 1st District, vacated by Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, and the 6th District, from which Republican Rep. Michael Waltz will resign shortly. Gaetz announced his resignation when he was nominated by Trump to serve as attorney general, from which he later withdrew amid a frenzy over a damning, now-released ethics report. Waltz, meanwhile, is set to become Trump's national security adviser. Additionally, the U.S. Senate appears likely to confirm Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik as Trump's ambassador to the U.N., which would precipitate a special election this spring in New York's 21st District.

Each of these districts is pretty solidly Republican, so even a special election boost for Democrats akin to what they saw in 2017 during Trump's first go-round may not be enough to flip any of these seats. Still, these races will get attention because the House is so narrowly divided — in light of these vacancies, Republicans will hold just 217 seats to the Democrats' 215 not long after the new Congress begins — making their timing and, especially, any surprise results that much more impactful.

Finally, it's worth noting that neither of the anticipated special elections for Senate will occur in 2025. Upon taking office, Vice President-elect JD Vance will leave behind a vacant seat in Ohio, while the expected confirmation of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as Trump's secretary of state would create another vacancy. However, the governor in each state will appoint a senator to fill the vacancies, with special elections to fill the remainder of Vance's and Rubio's Senate terms not taking place until 2026 (both senators' seats are next up for regular election in 2028).