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Latest 538 Headlines

June 12

Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election

It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
June 12
President Joe Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden, who earlier in the day was found guilty on all three counts in his criminal gun charges trial, after President Biden arrived at the Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Del., June 11, 2024.
June 11

How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast

In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11
In this episode of the 538 podcasts, Elliot explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11

Should voters look at election forecast as codification?

For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11

Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11

538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up

In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.
June 11
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast.
June 11

How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works

Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.
June 11
How 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast works.
June 09

10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada

All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.
June 09
Rep. Nancy Mace speaks at her event after winning the South Carolina's GOP primary election, June 14, 2022, in Mt Pleasant, S.C.
June 07

Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls

Two years after Dobbs, Americans still broadly support abortion access.
June 07
Several abortion-rights ballot measures are on the ballot this year.
June 06

Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind

We're tracking how many women are running (and winning) in primaries this year.
June 06
Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George's county executive and Maryland Democratic senate candidate, greets a supporter during a campaign event in Woodlawn, MD, Aug. 28, 2023.
June 04

Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early

Post-verdict polling shows a slight shift toward Biden.
June 04
Former President Donald Trump, flanked by attorneys Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, arrives for his criminal trial at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York, NY on  May 29, 2024.
June 04

Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
June 04
VIDEO: Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
June 04

Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative

On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
June 04
VIDEO: Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
June 03

How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
June 03
VIDEO: How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
June 03

How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction

538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
June 03
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
June 03

How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election

Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
June 03
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
June 03

4 primaries to watch in New Jersey, Montana and Iowa

Bob Menendez's trial could cost his son reelection.
June 03
Rep. Rob Menendez, Mayor Ravi Bhalla.
May 31

Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict

538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
May 31
VIDEO: Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
May 31

Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing

In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
May 31
VIDEO: Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
May 31

How the jury got to the guilty verdict

In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 31
VIDEO: How the jury got to the guilty verdict
May 30

How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election

Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
May 30
Former President Donald Trump walks out to speak to reporters as jurors are released to begin deliberations for his criminal trial at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York, NY on May 29, 2024.
May 30

Polling isn't broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges

Pollsters are trying to reach more Republicans and gauge turnout in 2024.
May 30
Pollsters face both new and familiar questions heading into the 2024 election.
May 29

Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November

It could lay the groundwork for again contesting the presidential election.
May 29
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks during a news conference on the steps of the U.S. Capitol introducing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, to require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, May 8, 2024, in Washington.
May 29

Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty

Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.
May 29
VIDEO: Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty
May 29

Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
VIDEO: Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?
May 29

Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand

Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
VIDEO: Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand
May 28

What to know about the UK’s July general election

With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
May 28
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
May 28

Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
May 28
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
May 28

How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?

Trump could get convicted, but it may not matter to voters.
May 28
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
May 23

Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.

Voters probably won't split their tickets as much as current polls suggest.
May 23
President Joe Biden walks toward Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., Oct. 20, 2021, with Sen. Bob Casey.
May 23

Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.

But most Republicans and GOP leaners will stick with the party.
May 23
Will Nikki Haley's supporters back Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2024 general election?
May 20

Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?

The team at 538 predicts how this year’s voter turnout will compare to the unusually high turnout during the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.
May 20
Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?
May 20

Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we examine the low voter enthusiasm for the presidential candidates. Are there other factors that could drive Americans to the polls?
May 20
VIDEO: Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?
May 20

Which candidate benefits more from early debates?

The 538 crew discusses the presidential debates and which candidate benefits more from their earlier-than-usual schedule.
May 20
VIDEO: Which candidate benefits more from early debates?
May 16

What potential threats are experts and voters concerned about?

"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.
May 16
"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.
May 16

Polls show some Americans are losing faith in our elections

Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch discusses how Americans feel about our voting systems and American Democracy.
May 16
Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch discusses how Americans feel about our voting systems and American Democracy.
May 16

Why are voters worried about democracy?

In the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14% of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55% said it needs major changes.
May 16
 In the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14%of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55% said it needs major changes.
May 14

Maryland's contentious Senate race??

The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
May 14
The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
May 14

Has inflation been Biden's biggest political problem?

Polling shows that President Joe Biden has a negligible lead over former President Donald Trump when it comes to job creation, infrastructure and the economy.
May 14
Polling shows that President Joe Biden has a negligible lead over former President Donald Trump when it comes to job creation, infrastructure and the economy.
May 13

Consolidating the Democratic base

538 Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses what can be done to consolidate the Democratic vote behind President Joe Biden.
May 13
538 Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses what can be done to consolidate the Democratic vote behind President Joe Biden.
May 13

Biden still trails Trump in various polls

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls so little.
May 13
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls so little.

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