Sep 09
ABC News Photo Art by Katrina Stapleton, Joe Raedle & Win McNamee/Getty Images
The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion
High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
September 06, 2024Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?
We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
September 05, 2024Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP's policies.
September 04, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
September 09
What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate
Americans think Harris will win, but she has ground to make up on key issues.
September 09
September 09
Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast
Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change.
September 09
September 07
What does the upcoming presidential debate mean for Harris? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
September 07
September 07
3 potential sources of polling error in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
September 07
September 06
The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion
High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
September 06
September 05
Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?
We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
September 05
September 04
What issues are the most important to voters heading into November?
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
September 04
September 04
How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast
Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
September 04
September 04
Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 04
September 04
Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies.
September 04
September 03
Is the Democratic Party a strong party?
Democrats' ouster of Biden shows political parties may still have some muscle.
September 03
August 30
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
August 30
August 30
How the latest economic shifts could affect the presidential race
538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
August 30
How are Harris and Trump talking about the economy? | 538 Politics Podcast
Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
August 30
August 30
Economists are optimistic about the health of the economy | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
August 28
How did Democrats talk about issues at a DNC devoted to ideals?
The party played to its strengths on issues like abortion rights and democracy.
August 28
August 28
How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump
We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling.
August 28
August 27
3 reasons why racist attacks on Harris could backfire
Data and research suggest they could cost Trump support.
August 27
August 27
What can Washington state's primary tell us about November? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
August 27
August 27
Can RFK Jr. win a contingent election? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
August 27
August 27
How public opinion has changed from previous elections | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
August 27
August 26
What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?
Democrats could lose a seat in the Evergreen State but make national gains.
August 26
August 23
How much momentum will RFK Jr.'s endorsement give Trump?
Polls show Kennedy's supporters only slightly favor the former president.
August 23
August 23
How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works
Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model.
August 23
August 23
Harris says she will 'fight for America's future' on final night of the DNC | 538
The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
August 23
August 22
What you might've missed at the DNC
Democrats have leaned into themes of "joy" and "freedom" this week.
August 22
August 21
Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
August 21
August 21
Yes, party conventions matter
Most viewers are partisans, but the events help energize the party bases.
August 21
August 21
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
August 21
August 20
Harris is starting to rebuild the Biden coalition
But she still lags the party’s 2020 performance among key demographic groups.
August 20
August 19
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
August 19
August 19
How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies? | 538 Politics Podcast
538 senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks to Galen Druke about how Kamala Harris is set to establish her own presence outside of President Joe Biden as the 2024 DNC begins.
August 19
August 19
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
August 19
August 19
Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago
538’s Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
August 19
August 16
How do voters pick a candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discusses what questions voters consider when going to the polls.
August 16
August 16
How important is the border for Latino voters? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke talk about the importance of Vice President Kamala Harris clarifying her stance on issues like immigration.
August 16
August 16
Democratic support among Latino voters has shifted since Biden dropped out
538's Galen Druke talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, about a possible shift in Latino voters toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
August 16
August 13
Do voters think of Harris as a DEI candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik discuss polling around the belief that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be a DEI candidate.
August 13
August 13
What does poll denialism reveal? | 538 Politics Podcast
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich play another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling?"
August 13
August 13
Trump’s line of attack for the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about former President Donald Trump’s latest strategy to win votes.
August 13
August 07
A look at Gov. Tim Walz’s political history | 538 Politics Podcast
Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about VP pick Walz’s progressive record as governor.
August 07
August 07
Tim Walz’s appeal in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team reacts to Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s VP pick and discusses Tim Walz’s appeal in the 2024 election.
August 07
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